The World Bank carried out the first study on the effects of climate change on the migratory flow. This study highlights three regions of the developing world, areas vulnerable to climate change. The study predicts 86 million potential "climate refugees" in sub-Saharan Africa, 40 million in South Asia and 17 million in Latin America. " These three regions of the world represent 55% of the population of developing countries and the millions of people concerned represent 2.8% of the population of these regions ," says the World Bank. In all, 143 million people would be forced to migrate within their own country, by 2050, to try to escape the consequences of global warming.
Three countries, three scenarios
The World Bank has chosen to highlight the situation of three countries in the three regions selected for the study: Bangladesh, Mexico and Ethiopia. "C countries have very different profiles in terms of climate, demography, migratory flows, livelihoods and development ," says the World Bank. In the worst-case scenario envisioned by the study, South Asia will have 40 million internal climate refugees in 2050, only a third of which are in Bangladesh. " In this country, almost half of the inhabitants are dependent on agriculture. The problems of water scarcity and declining agricultural production linked to climate change are likely to lead to large population movements "says the World Bank. In sub-Saharan Africa, rainfed agriculture is of great importance. The study indicates that "l projections project a growth of the Ethiopian population in the range of 60 to 85% by 2050, which will further accentuate the pressures on the country's natural resources. and on its institutions. "Finally, in Mexico, it is the rainfed agricultural areas, mainly because of the decline in crop yields, that are expected to experience the largest outflow of emigration. " The country will experience a rise in average and extreme temperatures, especially in low-lying (and therefore warmer) areas, especially in coastal areas, particularly Yucatan", . World Bank.
All but one fatality
The inhabitants of these three countries would be forced to move because of water shortages, poor harvests due to drought, rising sea levels and worsening storms. These already known phenomena will push coastal populations to take refuge in the land. But the World Bank assures: " the number of these refugees could be reduced by 80% (more than 100 million people) if the international community intensifies its efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and that countries adopt sound development plans s "